Dr. Shen Hongpu: The United States saves room city China to need not learn

From;    Author:Stand originally
The last ten-day of a month passed Boule of United States of   of doctor of Shen Hongpu economics in July the large-scale housing that amount amounts to 300 billion dollar and mortgage market rescuing act. This one act of dominant of the Democratic Party is the serious blow that holds the bush-administration that the market will undertake ego adjustment and rejects rescuing building city all along to grasping. This problem that rescuing act solved Fang Limei and room to borrow next United States financing to assure not only, still special improvement mortgages redemptive authority and stimulation buy the policy of form a complete set of room apiration. The when coming on stage dot of policy is quite delicate also: Index of current Case-Shiller house price already dropped inside a year nearly 20% ; Sale of American new house adjusted a space to close apparently in June narrow; New house of for sale of the corresponding period already fell at most year new low... if act still can be carried brace up rock-bottom people consumes force, OK still even helpful also to controlling economy of 3 quarters United States to glide further. Nevertheless the market appears not feel grateful. Not only market prise already considerably of shrink " two rooms " share price continues to glide, appeal in Gelinsipan even will " two rooms " after nationalization, corresponding share still is in drop. The corresponding period, although button hands in a most company 2 quarterly reports are good at anticipating, but 2 class market still is deficient in openly reaction however. This makes clear, american investor values the macroscopical parameter such as obtain employment data more, not hold confuse the act that saves city at policy. capitalist to this old brand country, cycle is not new, anabiosis having one exception is a lengthy process. This may let be fond of " the government saves city " be puzzled of Chinese certain National People's Congress indissolubles. Nevertheless, accord with economics completely however anticipate theory -- , low the high rational rate that confused market reacts just expresses market of clear United States. Want to know, good business and boom industry scarcely need rescue, and once a certain industry or enterprise need a government,aid, can conclude the problem that exists to be dissolved hard among them. Then, the signal that the government saves city is brighter, also be equal to endorse to suspect a mood at relapsing undoubtedly. If prohibit " naked oversell " regulation is revised suddenly, place clear United States to superintend authorities to already affirmed market presence breaks down risk, cause market confidence instead more hard prompt repair. The market returns concern to save city to cause deeper harm possibly even to American real estate secondhand. Without can deny, fang Limei and room ground beauty carried on on behalf of the government really the major market risk that early days mortgages bond, rescue them policy is equal to undertake to its the risk is compensated. But also should see, as appear on the market the penalty that the Fang Limei of the company and room ground beauty escaped 2 class market because of overall support of the government however, this is the investor that hit value of rational judgement company with governmental government order undoubtedly. More what is more,the rather that, american building town is small fan have its profundity setting. Change hollowly as the industry that era began 1990, american government passes the person buy a room of low income of temptation of policy of low interest rate, high risk to enter landed market, hold the industrial weight of upland industry in the palm. But to the United States this one contemporary develop market country, the around of landed course of study is spent to industrial correlation really finite, did not rise even like network industry pull move the effect. Lift a not quite suitable case, network bubble is in actually continuously period the respect exceeded landed bubble greatly. The thing of American happening, the building city that reminds us to want to treat China calmly " save city to talk " . Take the place of from 1990 since end, chinese real estate all the time by qualitative for " pillar industry " , ever swam to fluctuation allegedly the industry has developed very strong belt to move action. But discover as the value to land market and dig repeatedly, price of price, floor was gone to suddenly by flicker in China the level of reach the limit. More accompany grading land sell one's own things, severe accuse to plan to wait for policy with the ground, this capital that particularly traditional industry attracted all sorts of all sorts of identities, antecedents devotes into real estate among them, the rigid demand decay that how the people resides is stunt, development business people enjoyed this pleasedly to have the special boom that enters camp to have supply bottleneck industry again already. Everything all has feature of two sides sex. · of 17 centuries Williams matchs in " taxes is talked " in put forward " the mother that land is fortune " , misshape now the real estate of leap forward also arrived significantly truly to the contribution of GDP gross absurd degree. This also can prove, although landed industry fails to drive general collect masses to become rich in microcosmic level, but all sorts of element prices inside countrywide limits are answered to rise in the round on certain level responsible. Accordingly, adjusting control real estate, drop in temperature action of landed price, normative company will be helpful for target of adjusting control policy. And if be in at present domestic building city all valence interval is started with respect to ground of urgent growl growl rescue them policy, cannot rise to promote the people happiness and benefit directly not only, safeguard the favorable effect of economic stability, acquiesce possibly instead with the government the means of price rationality, carry an interest to develop trade group secondhand. While how bowstring goodness people resides a desire, deviate from the government order original intention that measure of market of have the aid of undertakes economic structural adjustment, cause similar United States more possibly to save the converse information of city to choose directly. Or because cause situation of miscarriage of justice of related side of the interest inside course of study, and bring send things go contrary to one's wishes. Retreat one pace to tell again, since the profit of American building city is good,policy fails get effect instantly, that our China why urgent need learns first. Be inferior to complying with law of value, let price of real estate pay ability to the people without obstruction ground fall after a rise can susceptive level. Arrive from theory after all actual, arrive from international home, evidence of Chinese estate bubble is very clear, the real estate of instantly adjusts level of Shang Zaichu grade, right now, the government cannot be saved really, should not save, need not save more.

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